OK, last time I thought H1N1 influenza was coming back (just after Christmas) it turned out to be just a blip. But I notice that according to Google Flu Trends, 30 states are showing increases in flu activity this week, compared to last week. Mostly very small increases,1 but 10 of the states have shown a sustained increase (at least two weeks of increasing numbers). Over the past two weeks, Alabama, Kansas, Louisiana, Oregon, and Utah have each shown a 10-20% increase in flu activity.
This is pretty much the time that flu season normally begins, but there’s been very little evidence of the normal seasonal flu strains circulating this year, so odds are these cases are almost all H1N1 swine-origin influenza virus.
Just saying.
- None are more than about 10% higher than last week[↩]
Well, I don’t know if you’ll find it relevant but here’s the link to the report on H1N1 flu in Poland:
http://www.pis.gov.pl/?dep=73
(the first link of the list leads to relevant pdf file).
It seems it is returning indeed.
Sorry – I looked just at the total number of cases (which is on the rise) and missed completely the fact that the percentage of confirmed H1N1 positive among flu cases fell from 38,3 (Dec 16-22) to 8,2 (Jan 16-22). This changes the picture considerably.
[…] been expecting a resurgence of swine-origin influenza virus (SOIV) in North America for a while now, and it hasn’t happened. The virus is still out there, still infecting a few thousand people […]