Mutation NationAbout 15 minutes after I wrote my last article on influenza variation, I was reading the Journal of Virology  and ran across another paper1 on the same thing, that at least partly addresses some of the missing points in the earlier ones.

To brutally truncate my earlier comments: influenza should generate a huge number of mutants as it replicates; but in the few studies that have been done, not all that many variants have actually been detected.

One of the points I raised was that the influenza variation was sampled at the end-point of the infection — after the patient had died, in the paper I talked about the other day.2 Even though the virus had been through the maximum number of replication cycles, it had also experienced the maximal selection pressure, potentially reducing the number of surviving mutants. Is it possible that more variants arose earlier in the infection, but died off before they were detected?

This new paper1  actually looked at exactly that. They used canine influenza as their model, so they could deliberately infect their patients and track through the infections from the beginning through the end. Even though they used a technique that is much less sensitive to mutations (and is probably more error-prone as well) they found tons of variation, and the pattern they found is fascinating:

Mutations arose readily in the infected animals and reached high frequencies in some vaccinated dogs, but they were mostly transient and often were not detected on subsequent days. Hence, CIV populations are highly dynamic and characterized by a rapid turnover of likely deleterious mutations. ((Hoelzer, K., Murcia, P., Baillie, G., Wood, J., Metzger, S., Osterrieder, N., Dubovi, E., Holmes, E., & Parrish, C. (2010). Intrahost Evolutionary Dynamics of Canine Influenza Virus in Naive and Partially Immune Dogs Journal of Virology, 84 (10), 5329-5335 DOI: 10.1128/JVI.02469-09))

(My emphasis) This (assuming it holds true in other studies) beautifully resolves much of the difference between the expected level of variation, and the level that’s observed at any one time point of infection. The explanation is that the variation does indeed appear, but it doesn’t persist.  There is variation is over time as well as at any one time point.

Hoelzer 2010 Fig 1
Figure 1. Variation between challenge influenza virus (yellow) and virus isolated from two naïve dogs 2 to 4 days after infection 1  

There are a lot of very cool things about this study that I’m not going to talk about (differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated animals, evidence for antigenic escape) but there are two things that I thought were particularly exciting.

First is the question of why the mutations seem to be so transient. Part of that could just be chance, part of it is probably selection against deleterious mutants.

But it’s also worth keeping in mind that the viruses are replicating in a dynamic, rapidly-changing environment. The virus enters a host whose immune system is at rest but that immediately recognizes viral infection and ramps up interferons,  then other cytokines, then innate antiviral systems that build up and spill over into an adaptive immune response  …  a whole range of inflammation whose mediators and effectors change from hour to hour. Is this changing environment selecting for mutations that are briefly beneficial, and that then become deleterious as the situation changes a few hours later?

Second – when we think about viruses that are able to jump from one species to another, we think usually of mutants, virus that may be less fit in their “proper” hosts but adequately fit in some other species. (In fact canine influenza itself is a great example of this, a virus that jumped from horses into dogs six or seven years ago.  It is essentially equine influenza, but compared to the equine version it has a half-dozen variants that make it more suitable for replication in dogs.)

If we look at any particular time point we may not find any of these potential emergent mutants. But if we look at all the time points, as in this study, perhaps these potential species-jumping mutants are popping up all the time, but only for a few hours at a time:

This observation suggests that mutations that facilitate adaptation to a new host species might occur transiently in the donor host despite any associated fitness costs and provide a transient reservoir of preadapted mutations1

(My emphasis) There’s also theoretical and experimental work that probably addresses how this sort of pressure could drive population-level robustness.  For example, while heterogeneity is linked to fitness in HIV,3 Claus Wilke says:

Virus strains with a history of repeated genetic bottlenecks frequently show a diminished ability to adapt compared to strains that do not have such a history.4

I don’t know that work as well as I’d like to, but I think it’s probably relevant when considering local and global evolutionary pressures on the virus.


  1. Hoelzer, K., Murcia, P., Baillie, G., Wood, J., Metzger, S., Osterrieder, N., Dubovi, E., Holmes, E., & Parrish, C. (2010). Intrahost Evolutionary Dynamics of Canine Influenza Virus in Naive and Partially Immune Dogs Journal of Virology, 84 (10), 5329-5335 DOI: 10.1128/JVI.02469-09[][][][]
  2. Kuroda, M., Katano, H., Nakajima, N., Tobiume, M., Ainai, A., Sekizuka, T., Hasegawa, H., Tashiro, M., Sasaki, Y., Arakawa, Y., Hata, S., Watanabe, M., & Sata, T. (2010). Characterization of Quasispecies of Pandemic 2009 Influenza A Virus (A/H1N1/2009) by De Novo Sequencing Using a Next-Generation DNA Sequencer PLoS ONE, 5 (4) DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0010256[]
  3. Bordería AV, Lorenzo-Redondo R, Pernas M, Casado C, Alvaro T, et al. (2010) Initial Fitness Recovery of HIV-1 Is Associated with Quasispecies Heterogeneity and Can Occur without Modifications in the Consensus Sequence. PLoS ONE 5(4): e10319. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0010319[]
  4. Novella, I., Presloid, J., Zhou, T., Smith-Tsurkan, S., Ebendick-Corpus, B., Dutta, R., Lust, K., & Wilke, C. (2010). Genomic Evolution of Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Strains with Differences in Adaptability Journal of Virology, 84 (10), 4960-4968 DOI: 10.1128/JVI.00710-09[]