John Hawks1 has a long and very interesting post on the human mutation rate — not just the actual number (which turns out to be less well documented and much more slippery than I had realized), but the techniques used to calculate the rate, and difficulties therein.

So much of the literature in this area is ultimately circular, I’m pulling out my sparse hair reading through it. By the time we get back to the mid-1990’s, the sequence data are even sparser than my hair by today’s standards — only a few hundred base pairs, or a sampling of restriction sites. But the divergence time estimates have propagated forward from that time to today, recycled through the assumptions of papers in the intervening time. It’s like the genetic equivalent of money laundering!

Conceptually, it’s very reminiscent of the questions about viral mutation rates, although the technical barriers are quite different and (especially for RNA viruses!) the mutation rates are vastly different. For example, Hawks’ post talks about which edge of a two-fold range the human mutation rate falls on — between 2.5 x 10-8 and 1.1 x 10-8 mutations per site; in a table I’ve used before we see a ten-thousand-fold range for poliovirus error rate estimates.

Virus polymerase error rates
RNA virus mutation rates 2

I have to get my kids ready for school now, so I don’t have time to talk about the techniques here — it’s notable that sequencing, though much easier on the tiny viral genomes than on the much vaster human scale, hasn’t completely resolved the issue, though the variation gets smaller as sequencing technology gets getter.

Here are some of my previous posts that mention replication error and mutation rates …


  1. Whose blog you should all be reading[]
  2. CASTRO, C., ARNOLD, J., & CAMERON, C. (2005). Incorporation fidelity of the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase: a kinetic, thermodynamic and structural perspective Virus Research, 107 (2), 141-149 DOI: 10.1016/j.virusres.2004.11.004[]