This post is the short form of the now very long post here. This is just the summary of what I’ve done and what I’m concluding; if you want to see why plus the grimy details, check there.
- My question: The regular influenza vaccine this year included an H1N1 virus (A/Brisbane/59/2007 (H1N1)). Will that protect against infection with the new H1N1 strain?
- My first question was, How similar is this H1N1 to that in the current vaccine? My answer: Not very. The vaccine strain is only 79% identical to the present strain, which isn’t terrible but isn’t very good either. For context, the H3 hemagglutinin in the vaccine is around 45% identical to the H1; we know there’s almost no cross-reactivity between these types. The HA from the B/Florida/4/2006, a B rather than an A strain and expected to very quite different, is about 30% identical. See the alignment and the phylogenetic tree in that post.
- Are the differences between the viruses especially large at the places where protective antibodies bind? If so, then we’d expect little cross-protection between the strains.
- First, we have to figure out where protective antibodies bind. A paper from 1982 (Caton et al., (1982). The antigenic structure of the influenza virus A/PR/8/34 hemagglutinin (H1 subtype) Cell, 31 (2), 417-427 DOI: 10.1016/0092-8674(82)90135-0) offered several regions of H1 where protective antibodies might bind.
- I ran a script on a few hundred different H1 proteins from different viruses, and determined that the regions Gerhard’s group said bind to protective antibodies tend to be highly variable between viruses. This is presumably the result of selection at that region to avoid antibody responses. So this is consistent with Gerhard’s conclusion and I’m willing to go with those regions as antibody binding sites.
- I compared the amino acids in the regions Gerhard flagged between the vaccine strain, and the new H1N1 strain. If those regions are very similar then I would expect good cross-protection; if very different, I would expect little cross-protection. The result (shown below) is that there are extensive differences between the putative protective antibody binding sites.
Conclusion (based on lots of assumptions!):
You can see that of the five antibody-binding sites (Sa, Sb, Ca1, Ca2, and Cb), four are really very different, while one is quite similar. Even in that one, the single difference, from Ser to Pro, is a drastic change that would probably significantly reduce antibody binding. So most antibodies wouldn’t bind well to the new H1N1. However, the most similar region (”Sa”) is the one that Gerhard flagged as the most important for antibody binding, so I’m leaning to the concept that there probably will be a little bit of cross-protection, but not a lot.

But what I would really like to see is an actual experiment, testing cross-protection and cross-reactivity between the epidemic and the vaccine H1N1.





And these newly abundant CTL were polyfunctional; they were far more likely to express multiple cytokines than the CTL pre-treatment. Remembering that polyfunctional CTL are correlated with control of HIV, it wasn’t so surprising that after PD-1 treatment SIV levels dropped dramatically after treatment as well. Most impressively, all the treated monkeys survived for at least 150 days, while 4 of the 5 control-treated macaques had died by then (see the survival curve to the left here).


Our bodies are crammed with millions of tiny time bombs: lymphocytes that could begin to attack our own bodies, causing lethal autoimmune disease. Traditionally, it was said that these self-reactive lymphocytes were rare, because they were eliminated during their development and were never allowed to reach maturity. But it’s been known for quite a few years now that that’s not entirely true. The vast majority of self-reactive T cells may, indeed, be destroyed in the thymus, but by no means all. (Something like a couple million T cells leave a happy, functioning thymus every day. If central tolerance is 99.999% perfect, then 10 self-reactive T cells will enter the system every single day — and it only takes a couple of T cells to initiate a lethal disease.)
We spend a lot of time trying to understand immune responses against the most virulent pathogens. Perhaps it’s just as useful to look at the response to feeble, marginal pathogens. Serious pathogens are serious because immunity doesn’t control them well, so if we’re trying to understand effective immunity, why not look at minor infections, where the immune system really works?
One of the general problems with understanding immunity to many viruses — especially human viruses — is access. It’s easy to measure immune responses in the blood, because blood is easy to access. It’s not so simple to look at the actual site of infection, whether it’s liver, lungs, gut, or whatever, and so blood is often used as a surrogate. But it’s an open question how closely the immunity in the blood tracks the immunity at the local site. (Again, this is especially true of humans. In mouse studies, you can sacrifice the mouse and remove the lungs. That’s not a real option for human viruses. It’s also an open question as to how well the mouse and human compare.)


